US Bond Yields Update

An overview of the generic 2-year, 10-year and 30-year USA Government Bond yields.

All comments regard yields, not bonds: “new uptrend” = uptrend in yields and thus a bear market in bonds.¬†

2-year yields

The trend is obviously very strong and momentum remains quite high (although decreasing somewhat). We refrain from calling a suitable strategy, other than ‘buy the dips’. Leeway to the down side is considerable before the trend is challenged in any way.

  • Near term trend: positive
  • Long term trend: positive
  • Outlook:¬†positive
  • Strategy: hold-long and/or buy dips
  • Support: 2.206% / 2.026% / 1.868%
  • Resistance: n/a
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized below 1.868%

Daily chart US 2-year Yields

10-year yields

Momentum is decreasing causing some divergence. A correction in the uptrend is expected before yields head higher again, especially now that the first major projection at 3.18% has almost been reached. Take some long-yields position of the table and prepare for profit taking and a general ‘pause’ within the trend for a few weeks.

Only below ~2.64% the outlook turns negative.

  • Near term trend: moderately positive
  • Long term trend: positive
  • Outlook: temporary pause/consolidation in uptrend
  • Strategy: decrease some long-exposure
  • Support: 2.91% / 2.733% / 2.645% / 2.55%
  • Resistance: 3.18% / 3.285%
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized below 2.645%

Daily chart US 10-year yields

30-year yields

The near term trend is bullish, but the longer term chart offers a much more interesting situation. The major peaks from 2015 through 2016, 2017 and 2018 are hovering above the market at ~3.20%. Will this zone be breached? If so, the longer term outlook becomes significantly more bullish with rallies to 3.85%+ and even 4.35% coming into the picture.

  • Near term trend: positive
  • Long term trend: moderately positive
  • Outlook: major barrier, exceedingly bullish above ~3.20%
  • Strategy: hold-long, expand above 3.20%
  • Support: 2.962% / 2.88%
  • Resistance: 3.20% / 3.85% / 4.35%+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized: 2.88%

Weekly chart US 30-year yields