UK Bond Yields Update

An overview of the generic 2-year, 10-year and 30-year British Government Bond yields.

All comments regard yields, not bonds: “new uptrend” = uptrend in yields and thus a bear market in bonds. 

2-year yields

The extended trend remains in place and serious signs of slowing or a reversal are not apparent. We maintain a bullish stance as long as 0.524% holds as main support. Upside potential is considerable: 1.60% and even 2.064% are the main levels to watch out for (6-12 months).

  • Near term trend: positive
  • Long term trend: positive
  • Outlook: trend intact, positive
  • Strategy: long yields
  • Support: 0.741% / 0.524%
  • Resistance: 1% / 1.60% / 2.064%
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized below 0.524%

Daily chart UK 2-year Yields

10-year yields

The recent pull-back has held out above the daily/weekly breakout level around 1.403%, thus keeping the uptrend in place. Our focus remain on long-yields. Targets come in at 2.05% (minor projection) and the much more hefty projection around 2.70%. Here the pivots of 2014 converge with the 162% extension.

  • Near term trend: positive
  • Long term trend: positive
  • Outlook: positive
  • Strategy: long yields
  • Support: 1.403% / 1.28% / 1.207%
  • Resistance: 1.523% / 2.05% / 2.70%
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized below 1.28%

Weekly chart UK 10-year yields

30-year yields

The overall outlook remains neutral within the range 1.641% and 2.115%. the underlying bias is growing in favour of the bulls though, so pressure on resistance is increasingly likely. Nevertheless, for a new primary uptrend 2.115% needs to be cleared.

  • Near term trend: neutral
  • Long term trend: neutral
  • Outlook: neutral, growing bullish bias
  • Strategy: neutral, accumulate longs
  • Support: 1.641%
  • Resistance: 2.115%
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized: n/a

Weekly chart UK 30-year yields