Gold update: Moderate weakness

14 AUG 2018

The current down trend in gold (and other precious metals) is exacerbated by USD strength. Gold in JPY, EUR, CHF is also moving lower, but with considerably less momentum. Overall the near-term outlook is moderately bearish and longer term outlook fairly neutral with only a mildly bearish undertone. Considerable support is found from 1130 up to 1092 and 1060.

We suggest to postpone buying until the lower regions of support have been reached. Real weakness only sets in well below 1060. A move we do not expect to see at this point.

  • Trend: neutral
  • Outlook: choppy in very broad consolidation
  • Strategy: avoid or range trading
  • Support: 1210 / 1130 / 1092 / 1060-
  • Resistance: 1280 / 1350 / 1445* / 1635*

Weekly chart Gold (spot)

10 MAY 2018

Silver and platinum are creeping higher (near term), but gold has been very neutral over the past weeks and months. Of course the USD strength has caused gold to perform well in other currencies, so “not all is lost” for the non-US investor.

The outlook remains the same as January. The major highs since 2014 around 1370-1380 are still untouched but the break above the internal trend line, in combination with broadly support bullish dynamics. Buying the breakout above resistance is certainly justifiable. Upside potential is very good. 1445 is a minor projection while the first major projection comes in at 1635. More importantly, the market will then have entered a convincing new multi-year uptrend.

  • Trend: neutral
  • Outlook: positive, long-entry > 1370/1380
  • Support: 1297 / 1265  / 1210 / 1130
  • Resistance: 1380 / 1445* / 1635*

Weekly chart Gold (spot)

25 JAN 2018

USD weakness is a big driver in PM prices at the moment. However, we see similar developments, albeit less viciously, in other gold-crosses. The major highs since 2014 around 1370-1380 are still untouched but the break above the internal trend line, in combination with broadly support bullish dynamics, suggest a break above the mentioned barrier is a mere formality.

Buying the dips and/or breakout above resistance is certainly justifiable. Upside potential is very good. 1445 is a minor projection while the first major projection comes in at 1635. More importantly, the market will then have entered a convincing new multi-year uptrend.

  • Trend: neutral
  • Outlook: positive, long-entry > 1370/1380
  • Support: 1297 / 1265  / 1210 / 1130
  • Resistance: 1380 / 1445* / 1635*

Weekly chart Gold (spot)

20 SEP 2017

A slight pullback off the neck line of the large H&S reversal pattern is in progress. The main outlook does not change: we expect an eventual breakout above the principal barrier at 1370<>1380.  Clearing resistance means the start of a major primary uptrend towards 1635 (first projection) and probably a lot higher on a 12-month horizon.

  • Trend: neutral/positive
  • Outlook: positive, especially above ~1380
  • Support: 1265  / 1210 / 1130
  • Resistance: 1380 / 1445* / 1635*

Weekly chart Gold (spot)