29 MAY 2018
The high intensity down trend remains in play. Major support is however coming in range around 1.1450. Here the pivots of 2015-2017 coincide with the 50% retracement (weekly) and the lower regions of the cloud. Overall, some consolidation or short-covering is expected. It is however noteworthy that intraday divergence of loss of momentum is still not visible; gambling on a recovery is extremely dangerous and unjustifiable at this point.
We do suggest covering some shorts (40%-50%) in anticipation of further developments. For the next 1-3 months a zig-zag recovery up to ~1.1850 followed by a renewed sell-off seems most likely. Again, we need the give the market some time to reshuffle.
- Near term trend: negative
- Long term trend: neutral/slightly negative
- Outlook: possible long-term trend reversal
- Strategy: partially cover short @ support
- Support: 1.1450 / 1.1420 / 1.1210-
- Resistance: 1.1850 / 1.1920 / 1.2030 / 1.2150+
- Outlook cancelled/neutralized: above 1.1920 (!)
Weekly chart Euro / US Dollar