EUR/GBP Update: Very neutral

12 AUG 2018

Earlier sign of weakness have faded but a strong counter move has also not materialized. A bit surprising since generally the market is caught off-guard once an expected move does not materialize. What remains is an uncertain an neutral range between 0.8650 and 0.9252. A

Avoid until momentum picks up again.

  • Near term trend: neutral
  • Long term trend: neutral
  • Outlook: uncertain
  • Strategy: avoid
  • Support: 0.8655 / 0.8380 / 0.8350-
  • Resistance: 0.8845 / 0.8920 / 0.8950
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized n/a

Weekly chart Euro / British Pound Sterling

12 JUL 2018

Even though we expected a bit more bearish ferocity, the overall outlook remains relatively weak for the Euro. Prices have entered the cloud resistance from the down side and thus far failed to carry prices significantly higher. Focus remains to the down side as long as the barrier around 0.8920<>0.8950 is holding above the market.

A low momentum forecast, but bearish nonetheless.

  • Near term trend: neutral
  • Long term trend: negative
  • Outlook: moderately negative
  • Strategy: short-entry / avoid
  • Support: 0.8655 / 0.8380 / 0.8350-
  • Resistance: 0.8845 / 0.8920 / 0.8950
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized: above 0.8950

Weekly chart Euro / British Pound Sterling

18 MAY 2018

The outlook is negative and growing more bearish by the day. The weekly bearish breakout below the cloud support in combination with divergence suggest a major correction is around the corner. The near term trend certainly supports the negative outlook.

We expect a decline towards minimally 0.8380<>0.8350. Due to the large down side risks and trend dynamics we suggest building up short-entries on all time frames. Only above 0.8830 pressure eases somewhat.

  • Near term trend: negative
  • Long term trend: negative
  • Outlook: negative
  • Strategy: short-entry
  • Support: 0.8630 / 0.8380 / 0.8350-
  • Resistance: 0.8795 / 0.8845
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized: above 0.8830

420-minute chart EUR/GBP

18 APR 2018

The near term has returned to more or less neutral after the strong rally of today. To much uncertain to actively call for a direction. A bit more upside is allowed before things change: the main level to watch out for comes in at 0.8800<>0.8830. As long as this hefty barrier holds out, the longer term focus is to the down side.

  • Near term trend: neutral
  • Long term trend: negative
  • Outlook: near term uncertain
  • Strategy: avoid for now
  • Support: 0.8360 / 0.8740 / 0.8370-
  • Resistance: 0.8800 / 0.8830 / 0.8935+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized: above 0.8830

420-minute chart EUR/GBP

2 APR 2018

The outlook on the near term charts is outright bearish. A new lower peak has been set at the 38.2% retracement while the weekly chart has been increasingly bearish for some time and finally turned negative after clearing the weekly support at 0.8780 (see outlook of 15 March).

We expect an increase of trend velocity towards 0.8370 on a 3-6 month horizon and possibly lower on a 6+ month horizon, although we are not speculating on that right now. Our focus is shorting the market as long as prices hold below the cluster 0.8800 to 0.8830.

  • Near term trend: negative
  • Long term trend: negative
  • Outlook: strongly bearish
  • Strategy: short-entry
  • Support: 0.8740 / 0.8370-
  • Resistance: 0.8800 / 0.8830 / 0.8935+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized: above 0.8830

420-minute chart EUR/GBP

15 MAR 2018

The near term outlook is all over the place without a clear bias to either side. The longer term outlook does show a different picture. The lengthy uptrend from early 2015 has turned into a consolidation phase with growing divergence and waning indicators. Although not expressly negative (yet), the undertone is weakening quite a bit.

Investors should keep an eye out on the main support zone around 0.8780. Clearing this area triggers (minimally) a deep correction towards 0.8370 on a 3-6 month horizon. On the longer term such a move could turn into a new down trend, but it is too early to act on that right now.

  • Primary trend: neutral
  • Outlook: consolidation, bearish undertone growing
  • Strategy: avoid or trading-short < 0.8780
  • Support: 0.8780 / 0.8370
  • Resistance: 0.8965 / 0.9270
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized: n/a

Weekly chart EUR/GBP