EUR/CHF Update: Major reversal unfolding

27 JUL 2018

The recent bounce has left a new lower peak on the weekly chart as well as below the cloud resistance. These developments are unfolding into a large H&S reversal pattern (bearish) for the longer term charts. Despite some spike-lows – which we disregard – the overall symmetry is fairly strong, increasing the general reliability of the otherwise mediocre H&S chart pattern.

For the near term we expect weakness towards 1.15-even. Below 1.1440 the reversal pattern is officially completed, but due to the various spikes one could rightfully argue that the trigger is a bit higher, namely at 1.1490. Either level could be used for building up shorts. Key is not so much the expect level, but the bearish dynamics that must pick up over the coming days and weeks.

EUR-weakness is quite widely visible, again increasing the reliability of our negative forecast.

  • Near term trend: negative
  • Long term trend: neutral/negative
  • Outlook: strong down trend below 1.1440
  • Strategy: build up shorts @ 1.1490 and 1.1440
  • Support: 1.1490 / 1.1440 / 1.1110 / 1.09*
  • Resistance: 1.1710 / 1.1715
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized above 1.1710

Weekly chart Euro / Swiss Franc

2 JUL 2018

Sellers hold their grip on the market. The current consolidation pattern occurs within the intraday down trend and at the end of a protracted weekly uptrend. Expect a push beyond the minor support at 1.1525 which should trigger substantial pressure back to 1.1400 and (weekly) targets around 1.1250 before things cool down again.

The bearish outlook only fades well above 1.1635.

  • Near term trend: negative
  • Long term trend: neutral
  • Outlook: trend continuation < 1.1525
  • Strategy: hold short and/or short-entry < 1.1525
  • Support: 1.1525 / 1.1400 / 1.1250-
  • Resistance: 1.1635 / 1.1755
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized above 1.1635

420-minute chart Euro / Swiss Franc