BTC/USD: Tricky

14 AUG 2018

Things have become rather tricky with the recent declines. Although some sort of correction was allowed after the strong rally in July, the ensuing dip was far to deep for comfort. Consequently, we have removed BTC from the buy-dip list and decided to keep a fair distance from the market and await further developments.

Other crypo’s have shows very substantial weakness and it BTC has been a relative outperformer. It is nevertheless uncertain if it can withstand the onslaught elsewhere. Dipping below ~5850 speeds up bearish activity towards 3800 and lower.

Due to poor risk/reward we do not suggest shorting the market at this point. Avoid and observe…

  • Trend: neutral
  • Outlook: very uncertain
  • Strategy: avoid
  • Support: 6565 / 3800-
  • Resistance: 6767 / 7140 / 8390+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized: n/a

420-min Intraday chart BTC/USD (Bitfinex)

26 JUL 2018

Our previous price target of 7693 (see 17 July below) has been hit. Some profit taking can be expected before the market heads higher again. As long as buyers mange to hold levels above the zone 7315<>7120 the outlook remains relatively friendly for the next weeks.

The long-term outlook remains doubtful and vulnerable, so we consider all buying only interesting for near-term investors/traders. Perhaps this will change over the coming weeks, but thus far we have too many doubts to expect a “20k+”move any time soon.

  • Trend: positive
  • Outlook: moderate uptrend, positive
  • Strategy: buy the dips
  • Support: 7315 / 7120 / 6565-
  • Resistance: 7693* / 8640 / 9855+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized below 7120

420-min Intraday chart BTC/USD (Bitfinex)

17 JUL 2018

The lack lustre trading since mid-June has resulted in a basing pattern after months of declines. Chances of a reversal and recovery phase are big. This idea is further supported by the contours of a Head & Shoulder reversal pattern on the 480-minute chart below. Clearing the neck line (now in progress) should trigger a decent rally towards 7693. Here the 162% extension and pattern projection level roughly coincide.

With stops below ~6460 the outlook is certainly worth buying into. Note that we have considerable doubts about the long-term trend. We need to see a lot more dedication and rallies over the coming weeks and months to take away our wariness. The current outlook is nevertheless a decent step towards a possible change in focus over the longer term.

  • Trend: neutral/basing
  • Outlook: uptrend above 6720
  • Strategy: trading long-entry > 6720
  • Support: 6460 / 6100-
  • Resistance: 6720 / 7693* / 8640+
  • Outlook cancelled/neutralized below 6460

420-min Intraday chart BTC/USD (Bitfinex)